We are living in historic times.
It was not coincidental that North Korea’s Chairman Kim Jong-un took the long train out of the DPRK yesterday while U.S.T.R Robert Lighthizer and Chinese Vice-Premier Liu He were still engaged in the extended U.S-China trade negotiations. Quite simply Kim’s early exit from Pyongyang meant Chairman Xi’s geopolitical trade leverage was diminished.
If you’ve listened to Secretary of State Mike Pompeo describing Team USA and Team DPRK delegations, both holding discussions in Hanoi all last week, the early exit of Chairman Kim takes on an enlightened context. Meanwhile, the U.S. media is oblivious.
Since mid 2017 the long-game plan of the Trump Doctrine toward China (on trade) and their proxy province of North Korea (nuclear hostilities) has been clear. However, being able to see it unfold means accepting President Trump held a strategy. Fortunately for us we have a front row seat.
President Trump has been engaged in a two-year long hostage rescue mission. We are now entering the final stages of carefully designed hostage negotiations.
The Chinese trade delegation, led by Vice-Premier Liu He, could not leave Washington DC without some structural progress in U.S-China trade discussions that would avoid the looming March 1st 25 percent tariff on over $200 billion worth of Chinese imported products. With a summit between President Trump and DPRK Chairman Kim Jong-un on the calendar, Vice-Premier Liu stayed in Washington DC for an extra two days.
U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer and President Trump knew the Chinese delegation needed the tariff delay; for the Chinese the issue was urgent and important. This necessity gave Trump and Lighthizer leverage. When Lighthizer brought Liu to the White House on Friday, POTUS Trump laid down the hammer.
The customary ‘light’ Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) would not suffice. Incredibly POTUS Trump made the statement publicly with full media present while he looked directly at both Lighthizer and Liu. It was a stunning moment. The Trumpian demand was an actionable and enforceable principle agreement on the trade framework. A ‘heavy’ and contractual MOU that could easily be transferred to the final trade agreement.
We don’t yet know the details within the demanded ‘heavy’ MOU; but we do know the strategy appears to have worked. From today:
Clearly President Trump is applying the Trump Doctrine, and overlaying the outcome of a U.S. trade agreement based on Chairman Xi removing all elements of his control over the DPRK for Beijing’s benefit.
China uses the DPRK as a source of forced labor, and a strategic geopolitical threat against encroachment by Western interests in the region. Young Chairman Kim is essentially a hostage to the dictates from Beijing. For almost two years President Trump has been methodically confronting this dynamic, and countering through the use of strategic economic pressure. President Trump is seemingly one man, yet he has this entire process surrounded; he is, quite simply, winning.
As a result of the economic leverage President Trump is applying; and with full understanding that Beijing cannot win an all out trade war against their primary customer; China’s panda mask is forced to remain in place.
President Trump reinforces the panda mask of Chairman Xi Jinping with vociferous praise and a level of cunning the Chinese have never before encountered.
As an outcome of the negotiations between Vice-Premier Liu He and Trump’s biggest killers USTR Lighthizer, Commerce Secretary Ross and Trade Advisor Peter Navarro, it would appear the ‘heavy‘ MOU is agreed upon.
Thus President Trump retains full ‘killer’ tariff leverage by announcing a “delay” (key wording), and simultaneously announces an upcoming Panda summit in Mar-a-Lago:
Here’s where it gets interesting….
How heavy is the MOU?
We’ll be able to see how heavy the framework is by the results from phase-two of the hostage rescue. {Go Deep on phase-one}
If Chairman Kim and President Trump announce an end to the U.S. war with North Korea; or if Kim agrees to some very serious, measurable and actionable denuclearization; then it’s likely the MOU is very heavy and Kim is further distanced from Xi’s grip.
We will be able to tell the weight of the U.S-China MOU by the distance of Chairman Kim from Chairman Xi.
This is both epic and fun stuff to watch.
Additional Images
